Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.012819 0.014498 0.016315 0.018427 0.020817 0.023437 0.026529
2025-10-26 0.010021 0.012298 0.014970 0.018339 0.022477 0.027398 0.033705
2025-11-02 0.008494 0.011023 0.014160 0.018341 0.023774 0.030609 0.039878
2025-11-09 0.007285 0.009896 0.013284 0.018009 0.024442 0.032913 0.044951
2025-11-16 0.006555 0.009263 0.012919 0.018224 0.025742 0.036047 0.051298
2025-11-23 0.005853 0.008569 0.012366 0.018073 0.026459 0.038371 0.056657
2025-11-30 0.005442 0.008229 0.012254 0.018502 0.027991 0.041920 0.064031
2025-12-07 0.004830 0.007525 0.011532 0.017940 0.027973 0.043152 0.068003
2025-12-14 0.004377 0.007012 0.011038 0.017659 0.028326 0.044926 0.072904
2025-12-21 0.003935 0.006469 0.010444 0.017155 0.028258 0.046006 0.076744
2025-12-28 0.003777 0.006367 0.010533 0.017744 0.029987 0.050066 0.085767
2026-01-04 0.003586 0.006191 0.010480 0.018086 0.031320 0.053559 0.094106
2026-01-11 0.003421 0.006049 0.010480 0.018528 0.032883 0.057606 0.103830
2026-01-18 0.003175 0.005745 0.010179 0.018423 0.033480 0.060036 0.110915
2026-01-25 0.002972 0.005498 0.009954 0.018426 0.034259 0.062828 0.118869
2026-02-01 0.002739 0.005176 0.009566 0.018093 0.034384 0.064433 0.124723
2026-02-08 0.002605 0.005026 0.009478 0.018308 0.035546 0.068030 0.134660
2026-02-15 0.002434 0.004791 0.009211 0.018157 0.035986 0.070283 0.142147
2026-02-22 0.002350 0.004717 0.009244 0.018588 0.037592 0.074900 0.154729
2026-03-01 0.002156 0.004408 0.008795 0.018023 0.037158 0.075456 0.159049
2026-03-08 0.002010 0.004185 0.008499 0.017741 0.037271 0.077103 0.165757
2026-03-15 0.001852 0.003925 0.008110 0.017234 0.036871 0.077661 0.170179
2026-03-22 0.001817 0.003920 0.008238 0.017826 0.038843 0.083311 0.186111